The usual caveat—these are picks, not predictions. I may not think all of these choices are likely to win on Oscar night, but they’re who I’m rooting for. I’m pretty sure this is the first time since I started doing these Oscar write-ups that I’ve seen all the movies nominated in my favorite categories, so there aren’t any films/performances missing from consideration this year.
Best Picture: CODA – Even though I always arrange my write-ups in this order, I actually write them starting at the bottom and working my way up, because Best Picture is usually a tricky question to answer (but not always—Jojo Rabbit forever!!) This year, the two biggest contenders for my heart were CODA and West Side Story, and I’d be thrilled to see either one win. In the end, CODA had just a little bit of an edge; what a lovely film.
Best Leading Actor: Andrew Garfield (tick, tick…BOOM!) – No shade to Will Smith, and I’ll definitely understand if he wins, but Garfield owns my soul with this performance. Even apart from the singing, which honestly kind of wowed me, he hits every beat just right, comic and emotional alike. Garfield left it all on the floor with this one.
Best Leading Actress: Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) – I thought about this one for quite a bit. All of these performances are good, but I wouldn’t say any of them completely knocked me out. So I just kind of sat with the five performances for a moment, and Chastain’s was the one that rose to the top in my brain. She brings a lot of care and understanding to this portrayal of someone who could’ve easily felt like an absurd caricature.
Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur (CODA) – This was an easy choice. The other nominees range from “good” to “very good” for me, but Kotsur is just ridiculously engaging. He inhabits the role with brusque charm and moves easily between hilarious and heartwarming.
Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) – Gonna have to go with the prevailing opinion on this one. DeBose is electric to watch onscreen in this role, full of life and dripping with confidence. Not to mention, she’s a certified triple threat!
Best Director: West Side Story – I know that Jane Campion is the favorite here, and for all that The Power of the Dog wasn’t entirely my kind of movie, it’s undoubtedly wonderfully directed. That said, I have to go with my heart and give it to Steven Spielberg. Aside from the fact that directing a movie musical is no easy task and plenty of talented directors can’t translate their skills well to that genre, the film is just done so beautifully. It works on pretty much every level and thoroughly answers the question of why we “needed” another West Side Story.
Best Original Screenplay: Belfast – I’m not thrilled with a few of the choices in this category, but I’m not giving it to Belfast by default. It’s a genuinely lovely film that nicely balances heavy drama with some delightful comedy. I did debate pretty hard about The Worst Person in the World, though, which is also great. I’d be perfectly happy to see that one win, too.
Best Adapted Screenplay: CODA – No contest here. There are other films in this category with strong scripts that feel well-adapted, but CODA is far and away my favorite. Beautifully done!
Best Cinematography: West Side Story – Strong choices all around this year, and I honestly wouldn’t be mad about any of these films winning. But I’ve sat through enough awkwardly-shot movie musicals to know what a tricky skill this can be to pull off, so kudos to West Side Story for camera work that’s artfully shot all the way through and gives me a clear view of the choreography in the numbers without feeling like someone just plopped a tripod in front of a stage.
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