2018 Oscar Picks

Here are my picks for the Oscars next week, at leat for my top nine categories (best picture, acting, direction, writing, and cinematography.)  As it is every year, these aren’t predictions – they’re the ones I’d pick, what I’d like to see win, even if I know they won’t.

Best Picture – Get Out

It was a definite question between this one and The Shape of Water, but in the end, I had to go with Get Out.  Such an incredibly well-made film that excellently uses horror tropes in sophisticated ways to get at what it wants to say.  (I didn’t see Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.)

Best Lead Actor – Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Admittedly, it bugs me a tiny bit that Oldman is probably going to finally get an Oscar for such a “typical” Oscar role, playing a well-known real person (in a WWII film, no less!)  But I can’t deny that he’s damn good as Churchill, and not just in terms of the impression – he demonstrates a lot of emotional range here and knocks it out of the park at every turn.

Best Lead Actress – Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)

I loved Robbie in this role – brash but vulnerable, a hard scrapper who goes after what she wants but who also shirks a lot of personal responsibility for her actions.  It’s a complex role, and Robbie carries it off with both humor and pathos.  (I didn’t see Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.)

Best Supporting Actor – Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)

This was a tough category because I was also really impressed with Willem Dafoe and Christopher Plummer.  Even as I write this, I feel like I maybe should’ve given Plummer the edge, but I want to give it to Jenkins.  He brings so much heart to the film, and his scenes are often my favorites.  (I didn’t see Woody Harrelson or Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.)

Best Supporting Actress – Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Metcalf does such beautiful work here, a mother who tries so hard, even as she often gets it wrong.  This is a wonderfully-layered character, and Metcalf really captures that nuance in a compelling way.

Best Director – Jordan Peele (Get Out)

Another hard category – there’s so much great work here, especially from Guillermo del Toro – but I have to give it to Peele.  This is a stunning debut.  Peele’s deft hand and intelligent eye is felt throughout the film, which is fantastically anchored by his strong vision.

Best Original Screenplay – Jordan Peele (Get Out)

This one was easier.  Even though, again, there are a number of strong contenders, there was really no question.  Get Out is so smart, put together so well – it’s by turns horrifying, hilarious, and thought-provoking, and it does it all spectacularly.  (I didn’t see Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.)

Best Adapted Screenplay – Scott Frank, James Mangold & Michael Green (Logan)

Yeah, I said it.  Despite some good competition here, I think Logan rises to the top.  It’s brutal, both physically and emotionally, and it’s a compelling close on the book for a character who’s been a driving force in this franchise for so many years.  Oh, and X-23 is amazing!  (I didn’t see The Disaster Artist.)

Best Cinematography – Dan Laustsen (The Shape of Water)

Really beautiful work here.  This film is stunning to look at, wonderfully designed as well as wonderfully filmed, with countless shots that feel like pictures straight from a (very disturbing) children’s book.  (I didn’t see Blade Runner 2049.)