2025 Oscars: Picks

As always, these are picks, not predictions. If I were an Oscar voter, these are the movies I would’ve picked.

Best Director – Anora

Honestly, I would’ve wanted to pick Conclave for the win here, but it didn’t even get nominated! So we’re going for Anora instead. It does a fine job with its bizarre-slice-of-life meandering style, which can be tough to pull off well.

Best Lead Actor – Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice)

Admittedly, I’m biased and I love the thought of “Oscar winner Sebastian Stan” emblazoned on future movie trailers, but Stan was fantastically good here. I thought he did such a good job of nailing Trump’s persona without letting it descend into parody. And while actors are most often celebrated in biopics for the accuracy of their likeness, he kills it with the emotions of the story as well.

Best Lead Actress – Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)

Honestly, I had to! I’m endeavoring to keep a modicum of chill when it comes to my Wicked picks, acknowledging that it can be my favorite without necessarily being the best, but I continue to be blown away by Erivo’s beautiful work as Elphaba. With both the acting and the singing, she’s just breathtaking to watch!

(Note: I didn’t see Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here.)

Best Supporting Actor – Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

This was an easy choice for me, even though there’s plenty of excellent work in the category. Culkin is just so good at what he does—his performance captures so many emotions, changing on a dime at a dizzying pace, and I found it both fascinating and moving.

Best Supporting Actress – Ariana Grande (Wicked)

Hehe, it’s kind of wild that three of the nominees in this category are for singing-heavy performances. Look, the heart wants what the heart wants, and I want Grande’s delightful, compelling, heartfelt performance as Galinda to be rewarded. I liked Galinda before, but I adore her now, and so much of that is down to Grande’s fantastic work.

Best Adapted Screenplay – Conclave

I debated between this one and Sing Sing, but in the end, I had to give it to Conclave. Loved the dialogue, loved the tension, loved the themes—so well done!

Best Original Screenplay – A Real Pain

This was probably the easiest category to pick. There are some other excellent contenders on this list, but I loved A Real Pain, and much of that is down to its stellar script.

Best Picture – Conclave

Yes, Wicked is my favorite of the nominees and the Best Picture of my heart, but the more objective part of my brain is capable of saying that Conclave is the best-made film. It’s crafted with such talent and precision, and it’s firing on all cylinders from moment one! I’ll definitely pump my fist in the air if this one takes home the top prize tomorrow night.

(Note: I didn’t see I’m Still Here.)