2026 Oscars: Picks

As I say every year, these are picks, not predictions. Regardless of who wins tomorrow night, these are the people/movies I want to see win. There’s a definite theme this year, and it emerges quickly.

Best Leading Actor – Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)

I’ve loved Jordan since Creed, and I thought his work was excellent. In addition to the clear differentiation between the twins in his performance, without going too over-the-top with it, he plays the emotions of both Smoke and Stack wonderfully, and I fully buy their separate relationships with Annie and Mary.

Best Leading Actress – Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

Oof, this was a hard one—so many fantastic performances here! But Buckley is just so good throughout Hamnet, and that final sequence at the Globe is exquisite.

Best Supporting Actor – Delroy Lindo (Sinners)

There are a number of great performances in this category, and I also really loved Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein. But I have to go with Lindo. He’s moving, he’s funny, he’s tragic—what a strong anchor among an excellent ensemble!

Best Supporting Actress – Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)

A solid category here, but Mosaku is the clear choice for me. Her performance is so strong and earthy, very grounding and lovely. She plays off the other actors beautifully.

Best Director – Sinners

Come on, you knew what I was gonna say. Come and get it, Ryan Coogler!!! Some other great direction here, but it’s really no contest.

Best Original Screenplay – Sinners

Strong category all around, but again, this is an obvious choice. Such masterful storytelling! The characters, the themes, the dialogue, the plot—just wonderful work.

Best Adapted Screenplay – Frankenstein

I debated between this one and Hamnet. I love both, and Frankenstein certainly takes all kinds of liberties as an adaptation. It creates such a powerful story out of the characters and themes, though—it definitely stuck with me.

Best Cinematography – Sinners

I know I sound like a broken record on this one. I’m okay with it. While I’d also be happy with a Frankenstein win for this category, I’m rooting for Sinners again!

Best Picture – Sinners

Look, despite my lackluster reaction to some of the nominations when they were first announced, I wound up liking this year’s crop of movies more than I expected. But in my estimation, Sinners is far and away the best film of the year. 

Joel Fry-days: Game of Thrones: Season 5, Episode 5 - “Kill the Boy” (2015)

*Spoilers for episode 4*

I liked this episode quite a bit. It covers three main settings, with a little bonus Tyrion and Ser Jorah at the end, and each plot is given plenty of space to breathe. It’s also the most screentime Joel Fry has had on the show so far—that’s definitely a factor in my appreciation for it, although it’s not the only reason.

In Meereen, Daenerys is reeling after a brutal coordinated attack from the Sons of the Harpy that killed numerous Second Sons and Unsullied, along with her loyal advisor Ser Barristan. She plans her response. At the Wall, Jon is considering asking the wildlings to join with the Night’s Watch in the coming fight against the White Walkers. Sansa, back at Winterfell, has been engaged to Ramsay Bolton. She tries to figure out who to trust as she navigates her new situation. Tyrion and Ser Jorah’s journey takes them somewhere Tyrion never expected.

• Shoutout to Maester Aemon! As Jon deliberates over whether to partner with the wildlings, he says, “Half the men’ll hate me the moment I give the order.” Never one to mince words, Maester Aemon points out, “Half the men hate you already, Lord Commander. Do it!”
• Oh Stannis, having to mutter the correction under his breath when one of the Night’s Watch says “less” instead of “fewer”—I know I’m going to hate you, and rightly so, but also they could never make me hate you.
• Good line from Jon here—“We can learn to live with the wildlings, or we can add them to the army of the dead. Whatever they are now, they’re better than that.”
• Brienne is in the North, waiting for an opportunity to reach out to Sansa in Winterfell. It’s pointed out to her that, although she swore an oath to protect Sansa, the woman she swore it to is now dead, and she replies, “That doesn’t release me from the oath. I served Lady Catelyn. I serve her still.” And then, awesomely, she ends with, “Who do you serve?”
• I hate all the horrific suffering and sexual violence Sansa endures throughout the show, but one thing I’ve always liked is her soft skill of knowing how to keep herself alive when she’s surrounded by really dangerous, volatile people. First with Joffrey, and now with Ramsay, she does what she needs to do to wade through these kinds of minefields.
• Look, it was bad enough for me back when I first started Game of Thrones and realized this show was gonna have fantasy zombies (White Walkers.) The moment I realized it also had a contagious disease that turns people into zombies (greyscale)? Game over. The infection angle is what makes zombies so horrible for me in the first place, so to have it as an actual infection is even worse. Shireen Baratheon is my girl, and I’ll ride under her banner, but the Stone Men? Oh my god, I can’t deal with it!
• Grey Worm was gravely wounded in the Sons of the Harpy attack, and Missandei spends most of the episode sitting at his bedside, squee! By the time the dust settled on this show, these two had emerged as my favorite ship, so I really like the scenes we get with them here.

Hizdahr is in two key sequences for a total of three scenes in this episode—look at the heavy hitter out here! The attack, and particularly Ser Barristan’s death, has Daenerys simmering with cold, quiet rage, and she’s out to send a message. When Hizdahr comes to the pyramid to pay his respects, he’s really knocked sideways as he gets swept up in that, rounded up with the leaders of the other Great Families and shown firsthand what Daenerys Stormborn can do.

In addition to getting more screentime than usual, this episode gives us Hizdahr in a very different circumstance than what we’ve seen from him before. He’s always been careful and precise in his scenes with Dany, conscious of how quickly things could turn badly for him, but the way things escalate here catches him completely off guard. For once, he has zero control, and he desperately tries to just get through it alive.

I’ll avoid spoilers, so I won’t get into too many details here, but Joel Fry is really great at showing this side of Hizdahr. At first, he’s so bewildered that he can hardly react at all, stumbling forward almost in a stupor as he and other former slaveholders are herded toward their possible doom. Later, he freezes, almost as if he thinks he might be able to hold off the inevitable if he can just stay still enough. And later still, he has no dignity left, surprising even himself at how low he’s willing to bend to plead for Dany’s mercy. For a character who’s been so calculating, it’s really interesting to see him in a situation like this where he has no cards to play.

Hamnet (2025, PG-13)

*Premise spoilers*

Completing all the films on my list, just under the wire, woohoo! Best Picture nominee #10 is a heartwrenching family drama centered around one of the most renowned playwrights in history, but the story it tells is very human and grounded, even within its literary and visual poetry.

Agnes is already pregnant with Will Shakespeare’s first child at the time of their marriage. The healer and the playwright—both have their own sort of magic to weave, but Will’s takes him far away from his growing young family in Stratford, off to the playhouses of London. When tragedy strikes, Agnes wrestles to carry on alone for the sake of her children, while Will pours his grief into his writing.

Hamnet received eight Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Leading Actress, and Best Adapted Screenplay. It’s based on a novel, which I hadn’t realized at the start.

When you’re talking movies about Shakespeare, you’re always going to be dealing more with historical fiction than biopic, just by virtue of the fact that so little is definitively known about his life. And since this movie centers even more on Agnes/Anne than on him, that goes double. As such, it’s not really helpful to wonder about the movie’s accuracy. Better to focus instead on the story it’s creating, the emotions it’s exploring. On that level, it’s quite masterful.

One thing I love is when period pieces emphasize that ultimately, throughout history, people have always been people. That quality is used to strong effect here. We see it in Will’s shy wooing of Agnes, fumbling and tongue-tied until he tells her a story. We see it when Agnes offers her children a folktale to comfort them through the loss of a beloved animal companion, when Will plays with the kids, when Agnes struggles to cope after Will leaves her to pick herself up after an immense sorrow. The emotions are human, so raw, so immediate. Which is fitting—because after all, so is Shakespeare.

I love the ways Hamlet is woven in here as an expression of Will’s pain. All the parallels are beautifully done, and the scenes the movie highlights are well chosen for their emotional impact. This passage is handled in such a way that it’s cathartic, not just for Will, but for Agnes as well. The whole final sequence is gorgeous—I was absolutely crying through most of it.

No shade to Paul Mescal, who I really liked in Aftersun a few years ago and who gives a lovely performance as Will, but this is Jessie Buckley’s movie. As Agnes, she’s grounded and otherworldly at the same time. A healer, a mother, a fierce fighter. She’s married to a genius who’s going to change the world, but it’s hard to think about that when she really needs him home. Stellar work! The actors playing the Shakespeares’ three children also turn in some very affecting work—Bodhi Rae Breathnach as Susanna, Olivia Lynes as Judith, and of course, Jacobi Jupe as Hamnet.

Warnings

Strong thematic elements (including the death of a child,) disturbing images, sexual content, violence (including an abusive parent,) and drinking.